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한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.52 No.9전체 목록 바로가기Vol 목록 바로가기
Shot Noise Process 기반 강우-유출 모형을 이용한 유출 앙상블 멤버 생성 / Generation of runoff ensemble members using the shot noise process based rainfall-runoff model  PDF
저자명
강민석;조은샘;유철상
발행사
한국수자원학회
수록사항
한국수자원학회논문집, Vol.52 No.9(2019-09)
페이지
시작페이지(603)
ISSN
1226-6280
요약

This study proposes a method to generate runoff ensemble members using a rainfall-runoff model based on the shot noise process (hereafter the rainfall-runoff model). The proposed method was applied to generate runoff ensemble members for three drainage basins of Daerim 2, Guro 1 and the Jungdong, whose results were then compared with the observed. The parameters of the rainfall-runoff model were estimated using the empirical formulas like the Kerby, Kraven II and Russel, also the concept of modified rational formula. Gamma and exponential distributions were used to generate random numbers of the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. Especially, the gamma distribution is found to be useful to generate various random numbers depending on the pre-assigned relationship between mean and standard deviation. Comparison between the generated runoff ensemble members and the observed shows that those runoff ensemble members generated using the gamma distribution with its standard deviation twice of the mean properly cover the observed runoff.